By Alicia Lanier, REALTOR
This morning I returned a call from a Silicon Valley homeowner who had left me a panicky voice mail late last evening. The family had returned yesterday from an outing to find a notice pasted to their front door, saying their home would be sold at foreclosure auction on March 1. Of course they were panicky! And why is it that a lender always seems to give bad news late on Friday when the office will be closed for the next two days?
Over the past year, I have spoken with more homeowners in distress than I can count, both in California and Texas, and attempted to educate them about all their options if they were seriously delinquent on the home loans. They have one thing in common: Almost to a person, they stay in denial far past the point at which they should shake themselves wide awake and say, “This is bigtime trouble and I must do something right now!”
When a homeowner calls to say they are 30 days or more behind on their mortgage, my first advice is always take action immediately. Preferably, pay off the delinquent amount and make timely payments in the future. If that’s not possible, call the lender and ask about re-fi, home modification, forebearance, deed-in-lieu of. Also, consider a short sale, where a real estate professional will remain joined to your hip while selling your home and negotiating with your lender a reduced payoff amount of your mortgage. Yes, a short sale means you will lose the home but you’ll also buy some time to make an appropriate move plan and hopefully avoid having a foreclosure on your credit record for several years.
I had told this family all of this when they first contacted me about a month ago. What they had not told me then was that they had received a Notice of Default in 2010, which in California gives the homeowner 90 days to clear the debt or face immediate foreclosure. For the past year they had been trying to get a loan modification from their lender, been turned down and were now reapplying. Sadly, they had almost forgotten they had received a Notice of Default (NOD) early last year, which had been suspended during the loan mod process. However, when the loan mod was denied, that NOD had been reactivated by their lender – and it was ticking away toward the 90th day and a foreclosure.
If I had known about the NOD when we first talked, I would have recommended an immediate short sale. Now, that is virtually impossible since a March 1 foreclosure leaves little time to prepare and sell the property and negotiate a short sale with their lender.
I am seriously concerned for this family and others who are struggling. In addition, my concern is extended to the housing market in general. Because that March 1 date prompted me to remember that rumors have been abundant lately that the “shadow inventory” of seriously delinquent home loans and foreclosed homes is going to be released by lenders this Spring.
If so, this shadow inventory release could turn into a foreclosure tsunami. And this tsunami would not just be one wave lasting for hours or days but would create giant waves cresting and rolling for three years or longer.
How big is that shadow inventory? Estimates by analysts during the last year have been as low as 1.7 million properties to as high as 7 million properties. (According to the National Association of Realtors, about 5 million homes are sold nationwide each year.) No one really has an exact count of the shadow inventory and it is broadly based: Fannie Mae homes, Freddie Mac homes, the Big Lender homes, and more.
What impact would a foreclosure tsunami have on the market? A higher inventory means a higher supply of homes versus lower demand for homes. Since foreclosure homes are usually offered for sale at deeply discounted prices, the effect would be dropping home prices.
By the way, California’s 90-day Notice of Default is generous compared to Texas. In Texas, when a lender issues a Notice of Substitute Trustee Sale (nice language for We’re Foreclosing!), it is issued about three weeks in advance of the sale. So Texas homeowners facing foreclosure on March 1 received their notice approximately Feb. 8.
TIP: Here’s your take-away: If you, or someone you know, is behind 30 days or more on a home loan, take action immediately. Call the lender and call a real estate professional who handles and negotiates short sales. Ask about all your options. Just do it. It won’t hurt nearly as much now, as it will later.
Alicia Lanier is a REALTOR and represents both Home Sellers and Home Buyers throughout the Silicon Valley of California and the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex in Texas. Planning to sell or buy in the near future? Email Alicia@AliciaLanier.com to get started.